Olivia Chow for mayor? Not so fast Toronto

It made for a heck of a contrast. The same week City of Toronto workers moved to erase the bike lanes on Jarvis Street, NDP MP Olivia Chow pedalled into a downtown press conference on her bike.

There to express the need for federal infrastructure money to repair things like the crumbling Gardiner Expressway, Chow also confirmed — for the first time — that she was considering running for mayor of Toronto in 2014.

So I’ve got to ask: is Mayor Chow our city’s best bet?

On paper, she offers some serious advantages. As partner to late NDP leader Jack Layton, she’s got a high profile and name recognition way beyond most other candidates. And her years in both municipal and federal politics mean she’s well-connected to the back rooms and big money that are essential parts of mounting a winning campaign.

Her policy interests aren’t too shabby either. After four years of integrity commissioner complaints and endless debates about plastic bags, Chow could refocus city hall on things like housing, childcare, infrastructure renewal and the environment.

And then there’s this: in early polls, she’s beating Mayor Rob Ford by 15 to 20 points in a head-to-head race. That’s huge.

But is it enough? Sure, Chow has opened up a big hypothetical lead over an incumbent whose approval ratings have been low, but Ford is a relentless campaigner with a proven ability to connect with people. Chow, as someone who’s been a partisan politician for much of her adult life, could be especially vulnerable to Ford’s populist attacks.

History may work against her, too. In the modern history of the city, Toronto has never elected a mayor from outside city council. Chow did, of course, spend fourteen years as councillor before moving to the federal scene, but her time away from Toronto politics could actually hinder her campaign more than it could help.

Just ask 2010’s early front-runner George Smitherman. Running as a city hall outsider isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.

But the biggest thing that gives me pause about a potential Chow campaign is simply a concern that it’s not the best job for her. The NDP will have their best-ever chance of forming government at a federal level in 2015.  If that happens, Toronto would be best-served by having someone like Chow working within that government to build things like a national transit strategy or policies that can help municipalities get on firm fiscal footing.

Still, ultimately it does all come down to poll numbers. If Chow’s the best shot this city has for change at city hall, she’s right to consider running. But let’s not start planning for bike parking at the victory party just yet.