How soon before the 'Elect Karen Stintz' signs start popping up?

TTC chair Karen Stintz will run to be Toronto’s next mayor. Probably.

For months, the North York councillor was consistent with statements that she wouldn’t run against Mayor Rob Ford in the 2014 municipal election. But she’s not saying that anymore. And there’s been a palpable change to her behaviour in and around city hall — her statements more careful, her actions more deliberate.

All signs are that she’s preparing for something big.

And, hey, why not? Stintz has every reason in the world to throw her hat in for 2014. She’s got the experience. She’s got the connections. She’s got smart people working for her.

Then there’s her own legacy as TTC chair to think about and protect. Should Ford win re-election, he’ll move to kick her off the TTC and reverse many of the good decisions she’s made on the transit file faster than you can say “subways, subways, subways.”

Plus there is a lot to be said for her strength of character. There is nothing I respect more than an elected official standing up for their beliefs against prevailing political pressures. Doing what’s right and taking calculated risks — that’s the kind of stuff we need in our political leaders.

Last year, when Stintz stood up and took on the mayor on the council floor, she showed that she’s got that right stuff. By killing the mayor’s entirely unfunded and unworkable idea for a Sheppard subway extension, Stintz took a huge political gamble and made it work.

Her taking the fight to the mayor was so cool that another councillor’s office actually had buttons printed up to commemorate the event. They’ve got “Karen Stintz Fan Club” printed on them.

That fan-club high, however, has been followed by some really notable lows. She quickly followed up her transit victory by presenting a half-baked concept for large-scale transit expansion called OneCity. It fell apart. Recently, she’s turned back to pushing a subway to Scarborough, even though no one knows how to pay for it. At times, she’s seemed better suited to stopping bad transit plans than working to create good ones.

And the financial side of governance has not yet been Stintz’s strength. She’s never really involved herself in the city’s budget process, seeming content to just vote with Ford on most things. Her single greatest failure at TTC chair has been her unwillingness to fight for annual subsidy increases. As a result, even as TTC ridership grows every year, there’s little money to provide enhanced service.

But even with those heavy downsides, it’s hard to forget her victory last year and the strength of character it revealed. Karen Stintz earned herself a fan club once. Maybe she can do it again.