Rob Ford, Doug Ford, and the politics of exhaustion

According to numbers coming in from advanced polling stations, more than 100,000 people have already marked their ballot for Toronto’s 2014 municipal election. Record numbers, say city staff. This despite the fact that election day is still a week away.

The most important conclusion to draw from this? Voters are ready for this to be over.

And by “this,” I don’t just mean the election itself, though it’s been long and repetitive. Instead, voters want to close the door on the Ford era — as defined by Mayor Rob Ford, candidate Doug Ford and a bunch of zany newspaper headlines — finally and definitively.

Sitting in on mayoral debates over the last few weeks, I’ve developed a profile of the average voter.

Setting aside the enthusiastic supporters who are loud but insignificant, most of the people I hear from seem concerned with the question of whether a Ford will win again.

They want their vote to stop that.

Candidate Olivia Chow has fought against this notion, calling for people not to give in to “politics of fear” by voting for the candidate that seems to have the best chance of beating Ford.

But “fear” is the wrong word for what people are feeling. It’s more about the politics of exhaustion, or maybe exasperation.

People aren’t scared. They’re just tired.

The numbers coming in from the city’s advanced voting locations seem to back this up.

Turnout so far is highest in places like St. Paul’s and Eglinton-Lawrence, wealthier midtown areas where frontrunner John Tory long has been expected to do well. Meanwhile, turnout is lowest in areas like York West and Etobicoke North, the working-class suburban wards where Ford Nation remains something of a force.

This mirrors other data we’ve seen. In a poll last week by Mainstreet Technologies, people who said they’re certain to vote were overwhelmingly Tory supporters. He got 42 per cent of that civically minded group, compared to just 25 per cent for Ford and 22 per cent for Chow.

The implication is clear: For a sizable chunk of the electorate, this election is already over. Virtually nothing will shake them from their position. They just want someone else to be mayor, and it looks like Tory is the guy.

None of this is necessarily good for democracy or for Toronto. Elections are supposed to be about issues and ideas, not simply preventing colourful characters from holding high office.

But I can’t totally condemn those who have adopted the anybody-but-Ford voting strategy.

After four years of the Ford circus, it seems like a rational inclination. Yes, voters want a better city. But first they want to use their vote to firmly shut the door on the Ford era. It sure looks like a whole lot of them already have.