Could Rob Ford really be a political threat to John Tory?

He’s been out of the mayor’s office for three months, but people keep wanting to talk about Rob Ford.

I’ve resisted the urge.

Most days, I care as much about Ford’s continuing misadventures as I do about the private lives of the cats that live on my laneway. Whether he’s selling his old pyjama pants online or getting kicked out of a council meeting, Ford’s actions of late are kind of weirdly amusing but they don’t really hold much relevance — especially considering the City of Toronto is in the midst of finalizing its $10-billion budget for the year.

That’s kind of a bigger deal than Ford’s eBay auction.

But because of his continued headline-making and maybe also because new mayor John Tory has made a habit of responding publicly to Ford’s criticism, there’s a question that keeps coming up about the ex-mayor.

So let’s just address it: Is Ford a political threat to Tory? Could he beat him in an election?

I don’t want to try to predict the far-flung future, but I don’t see good reason for Tory to worry much.

He’s got the numbers on his side.

Yes, Ford remains politically popular with a certain demographic of voters. Ford Nation represents between 30 per cent and 35 per cent of the voting population.

That number has been borne out again and again, most recently in a Feb. 22 Forum Research Poll that saw 34 per cent of respondents indicate they thought Ford made a better mayor than Tory.

As scary as some might find that stat, there’s a silver lining in it for Tory.

Since 2011, there’s never been any indication that Ford — or another candidate strongly linked to Ford — could do better than about 35 per cent in a mayoral election.

Virtually every poll conducted over the last year supports that conclusion.

Voters who have clung to Ford throughout all his scandals are obviously not going to abandon him, but it’s equally unlikely that Ford will ever see the moderates who helped him win in 2010 jump back on the bandwagon.

So unless something dramatically changes, Ford Nation is going to prevail only if there’s a multi-candidate race that results in a fractured electorate and a split vote.

If Tory is going to worry about anything, he should worry about that.

A well-connected progressive candidate inserting themselves into a hypothetical Ford versus Tory matchup could create all kinds of headaches — especially if Tory ends up alienating the left wing of council over the next few years.

But as for Ford alone, I’d suggest Tory not worry.

Sure, Ford’s still good at getting headlines but, unless his immovable poll numbers start moving, I don’t see reason to take any of it very seriously.